Today, security in the structure of development needs of the countries and peoples of Central Asia, as in almost all countries of the world, occupies a key place at the ongoing changes taking place in the world. An adequate understanding of this situation allows us to comprehend quite clearly and precisely the events unfolding both inside and outside the region, which pose a direct and serious challenge to our interests, including in the security sphere. Such a basis of convergence of interests of the region, which has been formed in recent years, serves as an inspiring goal of striving for prosperity of the peoples living in this space, as our region over the past few decades has gone through a period of disintegration, regional polarity and today, thanks to a combination of strengthening integration processes and openness to global processes, comfortable relations with each other, achieving of the growing economic strength, socio-political stability. Such relations are formed with the realization of the idea, rooted in our deep civilizational history, that especially in critical historical periods it is friendly and practically oriented interaction that strengthens the security and stability of our countries. Civilizational experience makes it possible to accommodate in its vast space the simultaneous rise of all peoples and countries of the region.
We, the peoples of the Central Asian region, to some extent prone to metaphysical constants, have always proceeded from the fact that the historical heritage, to one degree or another, always influences the current behavior of subsequent generations. Therefore, we try to avoid selective interpretation of the history lived together in this region, but on the contrary, we draw valuable lessons from it for the vision of the future. In order to move even more confidently along this path and have a positive reaction to both the current and impending situations, it is necessary to see the regional order in a broader aspect. This will allow us to determine our own development trajectories and security factors. To achieve the most positive results on the way to this in many ways provides our countries with the path of open doors they have chosen in foreign policy, which reflects the commitment to peaceful coexistence with other peoples and countries. Their strategies in this direction are close to each other and they are not characterized by priorities of dominance and subordination of other subjects to assert their national interests. Kazakhstan’s interaction between the leading world powers and subjects of international relations is called “multi-vector”, Uzbekistan’s “Mustaqillik” (independence), Tajikistan’s “open door policy” and Turkmenistan’s “neutrality”.
In general, their content and purpose imply independent, autonomous establishment of interaction with other subjects of international relations of foreign policy. The events of recent years show that this allows them to a certain extent to avoid also interference of other parties in their internal affairs. Following such methods of strategic maneuvering in unstable conditions, which are quite successful for developing societies, they now pursue a fairly balanced policy of equidistance from the sharp contradictions between major powers. Some of these contradictions have already entered a hot phase of unfolding, judging by the increasing frequency of conflict situations, and others are on the verge of doing so. Therefore, in order to avoid the risk of being targeted by potential threats, we do not compete with competing interests, do not adhere to certain geopolitical configurations, but strive to defend the development interests of our region. Attempts to aggressively impose on our societies a choice in favor of some configuration, established their balanced policy to the current events do not promise success.
Of course, this does not mean ignoring the presence of the interests of large neighboring states and other partners in strengthening the security architecture of the region, but, on the contrary, it implies making this architecture attractive and favorable to all our friends. When their place in this security architecture is taken into account, better prospects are created for the lasting, viable and stable development of the regional order.
All this presupposes that our countries, not only at the highest political level but also in the expert environment, are making considerable efforts to develop a common regional vision of the state and prospects for strengthening security as an essential condition for ensuring their own development. In such a broad existential vision, regional security becomes adequate to the current situation, and it is encouraging, that this is taken into account by our leaders when building regional integration institutions. Especially the desire of our countries to achieve and defend the independent role of the Central Asian Heads of State Summit Advisory Council in ensuring the security of the region indicates a desire to expand and strengthen cooperation. By strengthening trusting ties, it is necessary to further weaken the factors that inadvertently move our countries into a space of escalating relations. One way of overcoming this peripetia is to unchain a narrow understanding of the nature of national interests.
As a result of these efforts, Central Asia’s strategic culture is no longer characterized by confrontation but by complementarity, integration, the idea and practice of peaceful development, coordinated negotiations, tolerance and sharing of experience with each other. In recent years, the countries of the region have seen each other’s development not as a threat to themselves, but on the contrary, as a condition for mutual success on the path of their development goals. We hope these trends will help to continue to successfully advance the trend of easing tensions and promoting development in the region. I believe that the more we address security issues in a coordinated manner, the more space will be freed up for greater economic co-operation. Attracting investment through a strong, viable and stable order gives impetus to the development of our economies. Our societies are developing the skills to develop the ability to cope with situations of uncertainty, so that socio-economic difficulties do not become a catalyst for destabilisation of the situation, a surge of social discontent, and etc.
The formation of a full-fledged regional security architecture in Central Asia is only at the initial stage of its development, there are obvious problems, but there are also successes. The countries are developing high-level cooperation in the fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism. There is potential for qualitative steps in the fight against the drug threat, economic cooperation is successfully developing, many important documents have been signed, and the necessary structures and mechanisms for their implementation have been created and continue to be created. There is still much to be done and decided, but it is already clear that these aspirations are attracting attention from all sides, sometimes becoming an important instrument of influence and promotion of interests. However, most are convinced that security enhancement is a win-win area that offers good prospects for effective solution of the challenges common to many countries outside the region.
In formation the security architecture of the region, we must avoid the dominance of only one paradigm and orientation, but must look at the problem more broadly. In this regard, the question arises whether it is possible to objectively measure the foundations of stability and security in Central Asia. What resource indicators should we have in mind in this case? It should be noted in this regard that relying on the objective foundations of security will allow us to consider a broad offshoot of the dominant regional security challenges, which cover spheres of energy, food, climate, communications, information protection, border protection, preservation of sovereignty, etc. Each of these branches of the regional security sphere has its own objective indicators of measurement, which serve as a basis for strengthening our conviction and aspiration to make efforts to reach consensus on the priority of finding ways to solve them in accordance with the capabilities of our states.
This broad vision brings to the forefront the issues of strengthening and protecting the foundations of our states, which are defined in the basic laws in terms of sovereignty, democracy and secularism. The indicators for measuring threats to these foundations are not limited to internal challenges, but in many cases also have a wide reach outside. This obliges us to see clearly and concisely the events unfolding outside the region, for they too may pose a direct or serious challenge to the foundations of the regional security architecture. Especially the accumulation and use of terrorist groups for geopolitical purposes in neighbouring Afghanistan is fraught with a host of unforeseen and unpredictable problems for the preservation of the foundations of secular regimes in Central Asia. They are conducting an unprecedented attack against our countries, including of an informational and psychological nature.
Preventively solving the negative factors affecting the economies of Central Asia can also have a positive impact on the security situation in the region. This becomes relevant especially today, when the ongoing crises in the world and the region bring a number of economic and energy challenges to Central Asia. To understand the full range of probable cases of crisis moments unfolding on these soils, we think it is appropriate to proceed from the understanding that sometimes sudden discontinuities in a long period of improvement in the living conditions of people in developing countries lead to unexpected cataclysms and increased tensions in society. For along the trajectories of a long period of improvement of living conditions, the degree of people’s expectations of achieving higher standards of living conditions increases accordingly, and there is a very sensitive response to the unfair distribution of access to sources of development between individuals, groups depending on the concentration of power in their hands, etc. The accumulation of such factors regardless of unexpected regressions in the development of society does not allow people to adjust their expectations in time and it gradually approaches, at appropriate convenient occasions, the limit of adhesion to destructive actions. To avoid such a turn of events, the system should consciously and correctly make efforts to correct people’s overestimated expectations in time. However, such manoeuvring due to many objective and subjective moments and factors is not always possible to do in modern conditions of uncertainty. Although it should have in view that uncertainty does not mean spontaneity and uncontrollability of nature.
On this basis, we believe that close economic cooperation is important so that the socio-economic state of the Central Asian countries does not become a catalyst, destabilising the situation, causing a surge in extremism, an increase in drug trafficking, etc. The ability to develop both directions equally, without prejudice to one of them, will contribute to the fulfilment of the tasks ahead of our countries and to effective activity in this direction.
The current situation in the world is a chance for Central Asia to consider not only the re-establishment of a new security mechanism to prevent any such conflict scenarios in the region, but to reaffirm its own ability to avoid further hostility towards each other. The stability in the region depends on whether we can practically fulfill these tasks. Unlike many countries, the states of Central Asia tend to bring more certainty in their relations with each other and the region as a whole. These relationships are not subject to situational interests, but, on the contrary, are focused on the future.
Another unnamed important challenge to strengthening regional security is to realise that security has not only a material dimension, but it also has a spiritual and humanitarian dimension. Many contemporary processes aim at weakening the fundamentals of national cultures in order to break the basic values and institutions of developing societies. To prevent such threats, it is necessary to increase investment in the spirituality and education of the population, especially young people, through the implementation of academic mobility of universities in Central Asia. In this context, the regular exchange of media products between state TV channels can play an important role not only in ensuring information security, but also in bringing together the value orientations of our peoples.
We have reached a period when the impact of certain destructive events in one region cannot be limited to a certain geography. Especially, the Ukrainian crisis will certainly have a large impact on the illegal circulation of weapons through the involvement of criminal groups in the countries of Central Asia. Constant monitoring of the situation in all areas of the Central Asian space should also become one of the tasks of forecasting on this issue. In this aspect, along with scientific cooperation, an important factor in ensuring security is the practical cooperation of our special services to identify and neutralize these cells.
Involved in the orbit of world and regional relations, the Republic of Tajikistan cannot stand aside from the influence of the negative trends of these processes. If we keep in mind that the lines of many of these phenomena directly cross the vital and physical space of our country, then it must constantly develop appropriate models of response to such processes in order to ensure its stable development. We are now living in an era when shifts are taking place that are not at all accidental, but have deep causes. Analysis and understanding of these causes gives us the knowledge that the existing era is coming to an end and a new era is beginning. In the flow of these processes, all aspects of people’s lives, societies, and especially security are undergoing profound changes. Central Asia is also in a state of transition and the very location of our countries at the point of intersection of interests of major centres of power, which have a complex influence on the current processes in our region. In addition to the above-mentioned factors, it is also possible to include a new understanding of the inclusion in the production turnover of the availability of huge development resources of the countries of the region, both in terms of human and water-energy, mineral and fossil resources, which are constantly attracting interest from the position of not only benefit extraction, but also reduction of development risks.
However, the positive achievements towards building security and confidence in the region do not allow us to lose sight of the fact that many unresolved problems of the past year accompany us along with new challenges and threats. First of all, this refers to the fact that despite the fact that our peoples are united by ancient civilisations and a long history of living together in a common civilisational space with an enduring heritage for all mankind, however, some forces are trying to squeeze the generally significant cultural assets of the Central Asian civilisational area by political and ethnic interests. In order to contribute to the development of Central Asia in a changing world, we need to respect the spirit of the fundamental documents on cooperation on major issues, including historical issues. Avoid blind adoration of alien cultural heritage and do not rewrite the history of the region from an enocentric approach.
Although there are countries outside the region that are interested in deliberately playing up the ideological differences between the Central Asian countries, in an attempt to replace their growing cooperation and unity with confrontation and division in order to realise their own geopolitical interests. If such a trend is allowed to develop, it will increase tensions and hinder successful cooperation among Central Asian countries. Conversely, cooperation among Central Asian countries can revitalise trust in Asia and benefit the world.
We must represent regional security in such a way that our efforts are aimed at promoting inclusive Central Asian values. These values should embody the spirit and meaning of defending regional unity, resolutely resisting the ethnocentric mentality.
The path to such an atmosphere is largely achieved through the strengthening of the strategic autonomy of the region. And regional strategic autonomy cannot be achieved by striving for close accession, approaching in all matters exclusively to another power in order to overcome the existing certain disagreements on some regional issues. The presence, the presence of such tendencies not only contribute to the solution of existing issues, but also push countries to the sidelines of disagreements (countries are drawn into disagreements). Since the parties will try, when searching for a solution to issues, to impose their will on the other side with the help of their patron. As a result, there is a possibility that we will find ourselves involved in a protracted ideological confrontation, which will inevitably lead to the depletion of available resources.
By openly discussing these issues and strengthening peace in the region, Central Asia will be able to overcome the challenges it faces and achieve a prosperous future for the modern generation living in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to timely exclude these controversial issues and problems from the agenda and focus on those areas where effective, fruitful cooperation is possible. There is progress in this direction when we see that Central Asian countries are trying to avoid peripheralism and strengthen ties with each other and the rest of the world. This is natural, for Central Asia has always benefited from choosing such a position, ensuring its prosperity by making a worthy contribution to the development of world civilisation. Throughout Central Asia’s long history, many states have acted not only as translators, mediators, and intermediaries between East and West, but have also contributed in many ways to peace-building, cultural development, and trade beyond their borders.
We need to use the platform of this Forum and give a clear message, mentioning some of the still troubling security threats to the region by asking what risks exist for regional security? Through the search for answers to these questions, we will achieve the prevention of threats to the hard-won stability in the region.
The Republic of Tajikistan welcomes cooperation with any country that shares our vision of the stability of the region. The Republic of Tajikistan acts as an equal partner with the countries of the region in strengthening the stability of the region. Therefore, when the question arises as to whether the CA is capable of continuing to implement a unified and consistent policy in its relations with each other, we answer in the affirmative. To do so, we must provide effective answers to the pressing problems in the region: lack of water, food supply, prevention of extreme weather events, mass migration, burgeoning drug and weapon trafficking, money laundering, etc. There is a need to focus on strengthening and promoting stability not only within national borders, but also across the region, ensuring that our physical, digital and trade borders are secure and efficient.
Today, economic stability remains very sensitive to external and internal shocks, geopolitical uncertainty in the region and the world. To reduce risks in this aspect, it is necessary to maintain and develop regional industrial systems that complement each other’s strengths. Create a favorable environment and stable expectations for business.
In general, we are convinced that the Astana Forum will allow our countries to create an indivisible, sustainable, effective and balanced security mechanism. Our countries need to focus more on the real path to common security and common development. We must look to the long term, actively promote common, comprehensive, joint and sustainable views on security based on the principle of indivisible security, strive to build a balanced, effective and sustainable security mechanism. Based on this, the Republic of Tajikistan consistently and persistently advocates vigorous collective efforts in the field of maintaining regional and global security.
One of the important elements of any security architecture is the strictly unambiguous and equally accessible to all interpreted concepts used to understand, perceive and evaluate a given situation. It is on this basis that an identical reaction and response to phenomena that pose a security challenge to a wide range of partners is achieved. So far, we sometimes face certain difficulties in this direction, and concepts often used in strategic guidelines and organizing security events in one country cause a sense of wariness in others, based on an ambiguously transparent interpretation of the formulations. Because according to the content of the concept, it is not difficult to predict the choice of a potential object for neutralization as a perceived threat to the own security of a certain country. Of course, such tactics do not help build trust between strategic partners. The object assumed in such concepts, upon receiving such a message, is naturally forced to look for ways to ensure its security, and ultimately this leads to an escalation of forces against each other.
Laying the foundation for the formulation of an appropriate peace agenda in the interactions of the countries of Central Asia, this Forum sets before us the task of promoting the formulated regional interests in the field of security. This is achievable by coordinating the activities of Central Asian think tanks and making efforts to protect them both inside and outside their region. Currently, a certain degree of mutual understanding and active interaction has been achieved between the Central Asian countries, and now it is necessary that common regional interests begin to work to strengthen its security.
Press service of the
Center for Strategic Research under the
President of the Republic of Tajikistan
