TAJIKISTAN’S INDEPENDENCE AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE REGIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM: ACHIEVEMENTS, CHALLENGES, AND PROSPECTS

The 35th anniversary of Tajikistan’s independence marks not only a stage in the building of national statehood but also a period of formation and evolution of its national security system in the rapidly changing geopolitical environment of Central Asia. Since 1991, Tajikistan has gone through several fundamentally different stages in the development of its security system, each undergoing significant changes. Specifically, this ranged from a crisis of statehood and civil war in the early years of independence to the strengthening of state institutions, border security, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and today, countering a new set of transnational, climatic, economic, informational, and geopolitical threats.

From a foreign policy perspective, the country’s assessment is based not only on the past but also on a more fundamental question: “What kind of security system will Tajikistan face in the coming decades?” The underlying assumption is that in the coming years, Tajikistan’s security landscape will gradually shift from traditional military threats to comprehensive security and regional and climatic stability. Under these circumstances, the country’s security will be measured not only by the size of its armed forces, border security capabilities, or military cooperation. Rather, the transition to long-term security will expand the state’s capacity to manage water and energy resources, pursue economic development, strengthen borders, combat climate change, ensure digital security, social stability, and maintain a balanced external environment. If we look at the stages of statehood vulnerability that preceded the formation of the national security system, we see that the first years of independence were among the most challenging in Tajikistan’s modern history. Civil war, weak state institutions, political discord, and the influence of external factors demonstrated that the primary task for the newly formed state was not only to protect borders but also to preserve statehood and restore institutional capacity. After achieving peace and national reconciliation, the institutional foundations of state security gradually took shape, and during this phase, Tajikistan transitioned from a model of emergency and reactive security to a more systemic risk management model. The experience of 35 years of independence has shown that the end of the civil war did not mean the complete elimination of security threats; on the contrary, in the modern era, threats have changed their form. International terrorism, violent extremism, drug trafficking, transnational crime, and border insecurity have gradually become key elements of the regional security agenda, directly threatening the region. Therefore, one of the main achievements of the 35 years of independence can be considered the transformation of national security from a matter of state survival to a matter of managing threatening risks and global initiatives.

During the 35 years of independence, the border issue with Afghanistan has remained one of the most important external factors affecting Tajikistan’s security. The length of the border, historical and cultural ties, and the presence of armed groups and drug trafficking networks make these issues of immediate importance to Tajikistan. For Tajikistan, border security poses not only a direct military threat but can also stem from a combination of factors, such as the integration of terrorist groups, drug trafficking, forced migration, transnational crime, illegal trade, and geopolitical competition.

Therefore, Tajikistan’s future strategy should focus not only on “border protection,” but also on border space management, ongoing monitoring, technological control, information exchange, regional cooperation, economic development of border regions, and the reduction of transnational crime.

One of the most important positive changes in our security environment and in Central Asia as a whole in recent years has been progress in resolving the Tajik-Kyrgyz border issue. Armed conflicts in recent years have demonstrated that border disputes can evolve from a localized problem into a serious threat to the entire regional security system. Therefore, the agreed border agreements for 2025-2026 are of great strategic importance.

In this context, the most important outcome of this process is not only the delineation of the border, but also the real significance of the region’s ability to transition from border competition to economic and communication connectivity, ensuring the security and peace of citizens. This process continues, the border has been transformed from a “danger zone” into a “zone of opportunity,” and cross-border trade, transport routes, energy, tourism, and social ties are growing without risks or threats.

Another important, comprehensive shift in Tajikistan’s understanding of regional security is the inclusion of water and energy issues at the center of the security agenda. Tajikistan is located in the upper reaches of Central Asia and possesses vast water resources and hydropower potential, while downstream countries rely heavily on water flows for agriculture and food security. Therefore, water and energy issues are viewed as an important factor in the development of interstate relations and play a key role in ensuring regional security.

In contrast to the development of terrorism or border conflicts as obvious threats, climate change represents a gradual and systemic threat projected for the entire region and the world. Glacier shrinkage, changes in water resources, natural disasters, droughts, landslides, floods, and pressure on agriculture can have a direct impact on economic and social stability. At a regional scale, this process could intensify competition for water, food, and energy, and in the future, the concept of “climate security” must be considered alongside the concept of “national security.”

It should be noted that future water security depends on more than just hydropower construction; climate change, melting glaciers, changing precipitation patterns, and growing water demand could also alter the regional balance. A study of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan conducted in 2026 shows that water resource management in the region is increasingly intertwined with institutional, social, and climate change issues. Therefore, water diplomacy for Tajikistan in the coming decades could become a key focus of national and foreign security policy, recognizing Tajikistan as a leader in water and glacier resource issues not only in the region but also globally. Today, Russia, China, the European Union, the United States, and other powers are pursuing their own interests in security, energy, transport, investment, and natural resources, which are linked to the security of all Central Asian countries. In these circumstances, multilateral foreign policy is particularly important for Tajikistan, and the primary goal should not be to favor one power over another, but to transform partnerships while preserving long-term national interests.

To enhance internal security and regional potential, the following objectives can be envisaged:

1. Sustainable Cooperation. Tajikistan’s relations with regional countries will improve, border issues will be resolved and stabilized, mechanisms for cooperation in water and energy resources will be strengthened, and Afghanistan will likely also be involved in economic and regional processes, which will benefit regional security. In this case, Tajikistan, thanks to its mountainous location and abundant water resources, could become a hub for regional cooperation in water and energy resources.
2. Managing Competition. External forces are intensifying competition in Central Asia, water and energy issues are becoming politicized, and the situation in the region remains unstable. In these circumstances, Tajikistan should intensify its multifaceted foreign policy while simultaneously focusing more attention on strengthening its domestic capacity to cope with threatening crises.
3. Changing Environment. This is possible in the context of simultaneous intensification of climate change, water shortages, regional instability, economic weakness, and geopolitical competition. In this context, threats will reinforce each other, creating a cycle: climate change → water shortages → economic pressure → migration → social vulnerability → increasing security risks. Therefore, preventing the transition to such an environment should be the most important foreign policy objective.

Therefore, to mitigate long-term risks in the future, the following are considered priority strategic areas for Tajikistan:

– Strengthening regional security through diplomacy. The concept of security in the 21st century is no longer associated exclusively with military means, and the stronger the mechanisms for dialogue between countries in the region, the greater the likelihood of preventing and reducing conflicts.

– Transforming the water issue from a potential factor of competition to a factor of cooperation. Tajikistan can further strengthen water diplomacy as an important strategic tool of foreign policy and become a leader in ensuring regional security.

– Economic transformation. Creating a sustainable economy that remains resilient in the face of external threats.

– Investments in human capital development. Developing young people with a quality education, digital skills, and economic opportunities are essential resources for long-term security and the development of intellectual potential.

– Developing strategic forecasting. In a rapidly changing world, the state must not only respond to emerging threats but also identify and prevent their occurrence in advance. To achieve this, state policy must be based on accurate scientific analysis, based on risk monitoring and the use of reliable information.

In conclusion, the 35th anniversary of Tajikistan’s independence can be seen from a security perspective as a transition from an era of state protection to an era of integrated management of regional risks and global initiatives. The experience of the past three and a half decades shows that Tajikistan’s security is inseparable from regional security, and that borders with regional countries, water and energy resources, climate change, migration, economics, and geopolitical competition have become a unified system of dependencies.

Tajikistan’s prospects for the coming years depend on how far the country can advance from a model of “security as protection from threats” to a model of “security as comprehensive stability of the state and society.” Ultimately, Tajikistan’s strategic power in the coming years will be further strengthened not only by its military potential, but also by its ability to build a sustainable economy, wisely manage water resources, adapt to climate change, develop human capital, strengthen regional cooperation, and maintain a prudent policy of geopolitical balance.

From this perspective, the 35th anniversary of Tajikistan’s independence is not only the culmination of thirty-and-a-half decades of statehood but also the beginning of a new strategic phase, in which Tajikistan’s security will be increasingly focused on its ability to anticipate, adapt, and cooperate with the region.

Mehriddin Kholzoda

Doctor PhD, Head of the Department of analysis and

Forecasting of Regional Security Issues,

Center for strategic research under the

President of the Republic of Tajikistan